The Reverse Moore’s Law
Every 12 to 24 months the number of transistors doubles, and with this the speed of microprocessors. This is what Intel co-founder Gordon Moore discovered in the 1960s. Dubbed quickly Moore’s Law, this also became fact. The exponential development of computer and memory chips is still valid today.
Gordon Moore himself didn’t consider this a law, but rather a self-fulfilling prophecy. Every company knew it and planned accordingly. if they didn’t, they could be sure that others would plan and follow through. And this meant you lost the game. This is why everyone involved worked hard to fulfill Moore’s Law.
Now there is the Reverse Mooresche Gesetz.
Autonomous Cars? “That takes at least another 20 years, if not longer.”
Electric vehicles? “Nobody really wants them. But as soon as the market is mature, we will pull our technical plans from our drawers and build them.”
This reduces the need to make an effort. The urgency is dismissed. But when Silicon Valley companies and German automakers start operating in the same market with those different approaches and mindsets, it doesn’t need to be a crystal ball reader to predict who’s not going to make it.
We already had the first victim with BMW, a company that is now worth less than Tesla, despite car sales 23x higher. How that happens can be studied here: Why Is Tesla Worth So Much? Bubble or Real Values?
This article has also been published in German.